Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 11.523630 13.481978 15.628707 18.150741 21.026405 24.196799 27.950253
2024-10-20 8.271848 10.867963 14.006483 18.052821 23.100985 29.158629 36.941555
2024-10-27 6.274124 9.123380 12.871374 18.097618 25.120451 34.144816 46.516496
2024-11-03 5.340976 8.464464 12.874428 19.433478 28.792176 41.490185 59.804636
2024-11-10 4.533232 7.767944 12.634405 20.296929 31.815884 48.191407 72.848453
2024-11-17 3.885982 7.154910 12.365679 21.001134 34.596912 54.730290 86.196619
2024-11-24 3.199638 6.323727 11.592935 20.766626 35.859386 59.085043 96.667597
2024-12-01 2.566957 5.444871 10.577353 19.953216 36.046549 61.736086 104.693251
2024-12-08 2.091867 4.749792 9.749032 19.304811 36.367594 64.540738 113.087504
2024-12-15 1.806874 4.363303 9.406501 19.441180 37.990362 69.530555 125.306174
2024-12-22 1.521621 3.913251 8.864890 19.121952 38.745231 73.090600 135.385845
2024-12-29 1.406546 3.811086 8.991124 20.078576 41.887009 80.951152 153.249413
2025-01-05 1.233900 3.549201 8.767115 20.354984 43.864193 87.069662 168.830692
2025-01-12 1.075009 3.286186 8.501508 20.518165 45.656310 93.036437 184.668397
2025-01-19 0.938552 3.047664 8.249983 20.674446 47.446642 99.142741 201.216006
2025-01-26 0.902471 3.072444 8.614279 22.220367 52.209881 111.193403 229.495942
2025-02-02 0.836928 2.998202 8.726837 23.209848 55.902722 121.454737 255.100685
2025-02-09 0.768327 2.897985 8.757365 24.009611 59.260718 131.295242 280.530284
2025-02-16 0.661625 2.650646 8.365163 23.748281 60.272917 136.534600 297.415932
2025-02-23 0.546233 2.339836 7.743952 22.833104 59.717647 138.531155 308.043761
2025-03-02 0.455666 2.085043 7.227599 22.102761 59.492780 141.164179 320.073670
2025-03-09 0.404662 1.958750 7.059601 22.256619 61.350740 148.310133 341.695621
2025-03-16 0.346772 1.786454 6.719428 21.896826 61.930654 152.737440 357.964296